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CURRENT MARKET TREND: Down on 1/24/2020






Tuesday, March 18, 2014

Mistake - Updated

In a previous post I stated that 2 out of the 3 bullish counts were invalidated when in fact NONE of the bullish counts were invalidated. Only a drop below 1834.43 could invalidate 2 of the counts, and only a drop below 1737.91 could invalidate the third count.

Anyway, I don't have much faith in 2 of the 3 bullish counts which I believed were invalidated anyway.


White Count: Wave 5 Expanding Ending Diagonal. This move can NOT go over 1905.
Red Count: Contains white wave i, white wave ii, then red wave (i), red wave (ii). Still valid while above 1834.43 WCI
Green Count: The whole move from 1737 to 1883 was wave 1. I can count this with an ending diagonal triangle for iii of 1 (the b wave in the chart above).

I believe the Green Count is the most valid bullish count at the moment. So based on that assumption I have figured a target on the chart. The price target box (red box) is drawn from a 50%-78.6% retracement of the move off 1737. The time box (purple box) is the time of wave 1 transferred to wave 2. The box marks 61.8% of the time wave 1 took to 100% of the time wave 1 took. If I'm looking to take a long position in the near future, I will wait until the SP-500 ends up within that box, then look at indicators for reversal signals.

I apologize for saying the bull counts were invalidated when they weren't.