QQQ - Buying More Dec. Puts

Based on all daily charts being on sell for the major indices, I'm taking another shot at the Q's here. The wave count invalidation is at 83.41 so that's where the stop should be placed.

Chart:

Price is currently bumping up against the 61,8 retrace of the white wave i down. So far it has touched this level 3 times. Gann Rule of 4 states that it will break above this level on the 4th try, so that's something I'm currently watching.

Swing Trend Indicator - Full Sell 11/11

The Swing Trend Indicator went on full sell yesterday telling me to sell the market today.

Swing Trend Indicator - Tentative Sell

The swing trend indicator has issued a tentative sell today, but this signal is based on a closing basis. Will update at the EOD.

SP-500 Daily Update

The point of this blog is to give longer term advice on the markets for longer term swing trades. The benefits of trading this way: Longer duration trades mean we are sticking with the trend, we don't have a need to jump in and out of our positions (except lately we've had some volatility and more buys/sells than usual), it gives other traders a chance to put on positions without having to look at a blog daily to find updates.

I think the daily time frame is the most important for indices, thus the majority of my effort is put into daily charts. In FX, I focus more on shorter term trades lasting a few days to a week.

Having said that, all daily charts are still on buy EXCEPT RUT has issued a daily sell signal back on Wednesday, October 30th. The SP-500 did issue an ADX sell on Friday, but it negated that sell signal today.

Charts:

the EWOsc broke out and rose to overbought territory. It is now dropping from that area.

StochRSI broke below it's initial up trend line and also broke below it's trigger line. This indicator is on sell and once it's below the "bearish below" line, we should probably be short.

RSI gave a change in trend and dropped below the 80 line. It is now heading back up. Once the up trend line is broken, the RSI has in the past gone back up with new highs in the index. This usually causes a negative divergence and is shortable.

ADX gave an initial sell signal on Friday by closing below Thursdays closing price. Today, it went up to match the height of Thursday and negated the ADX sell signal. We need the ADX to roll over again for a sell signal.

The Swing Trend Indicator was close to giving a tentative sell on Fridays close, but has not yet done so. It is currently testing support on the yellow up trend line.

SP-500 Daily

As of this morning, two indicators on the daily chart were on sell, the StochRSI broke below the trigger line and the RSI broke the uptrend line. The ADX still has not rolled over on the SP-500 and even when it does, there is still a chance for prices to rise 20-40 pts over the previous high before the signal kicks into gear. Lately, however, it has been marking tops.

 As of writing, at 11:52 CST, the ADX has rolled.

SP-500 DAily

As of now, the RSI has broke it's uptrend line and the StchRSI has broken below the trigger sell point.

SP-500 Daily StochRSI Signal

I have updated the StochRSI chart to include the signal line. Breaking below the horizontal line will be a hint that we have topped.

SP-500 Daily Update

The SP-500 has entered into the low end of it's Fib Resistance Zone by reaching 1770. The zone runs from 1770-1820 and is where I expect a correction to form. As of publishing after the close, all daily indicators are still on buy.

Charts:

 The negative divergence in the +DI has disappeared. The ADX is approaching the zone where a rollover will either mark the top or the top will form within 20-40 pts. of the rollover. This indicator gives better signals when the rollover occurs above the yellow line. I will be watching this daily since we are also inside the FRZ.

 The MACD is approaching the top of it's uptrend channel. I don't really care about that. I want to see it break it's uptrend line or put in a -div.

 The small break in the original RSI uptrend line was exactly what I thought it would be. A pause before a new uptrend line and higher levels. Once the new uptrend line is breached we should be short again.

StochRSI is in bullish above territory and on it's uptrend line. There should now be a horizontal line at the prior low of the StochRSI and I won't short until that is at least broken.

Good Luck!

Jim

SPY Update - Stopped Out

I was stopped out of my SPY short on the close @ 175.95. Flat SPY.

SP-500 Daily UPDATE

The SP-500 is again getting overextended. I looked for long positions back on October 9th and am now focusing on getting some short positions going. Looking across the daily indicators, the SP-500 remains in bullish territory. I did get a short term trend change to down, but short term signals are rarely reliable.

Let's look at the charts.

The ADX is still trending up, which is bullish. The +DI has entered overbought territory. A negative divergence in the +DI would be a great place to get short. Or I'll be shorting a rollover of the ADX which hasn't been entering the 35-40 range recently to mark highs and lows. We must adapt this indicator and jump the rollovers.

 Based on the MACD readings I am adjusting the daily count. The green 3 on the chart will be moved to the right and take the place of the white b. This makes the count an ending diagonal for green wave 3. The green 4 is still in the correct position, and we're now rallying in Green wave 5. The MACD is suggestive of a triangle from June to October. This still doesn't change the count much, but I like having things correct.

The RSI broke the uptrend line already, but at that time I pointed out how is has done this in the past and go on to reach new highs (circled on the chart). It did it again. This time it has broken the new uptrend line. We need to follow this indicator to see if it's going to produce a new uptrend line or not.

The StochRSI is close to breaking its uptrend line, but remains in the "bullish above" territory. Again, we will follow the indicator to see what it has in store.

The Strong FRZ lies at 1770-1820. Expect this area to cap the move up and cause at least a 200 point correction.