Unbiased Forex and Equity Swing Trades
Saturday, March 30, 2013
Wednesday, March 6, 2013
Saturday, February 2, 2013
Out of Longs
Yesterday I sold the second half of my long positions and entered my first scale of shorts positions. I am now 25% short via TZA. The only long position I am still holding is NFLX calls.
Wednesday, January 30, 2013
Signs of the Times
The market is putting in some reversal notifications within a band of fibonacci resistance areas, which is not bullish. Looking to exit the other half of my long position.
We'll start with the SP-500 w/ ATR. It has approached a trendline that has marked previous tops and is looking to reverse.
The next chart shows the ratio of SP-500 and TLT: It is outside it's upper BB and a close back inside gives a sell signal. This signal has produced small moves, but it has also marked tops.
The RUT gave and ADX sell signal and the DI's crossed above and below their associated trend lines.
To be fair, the above chart (RUT) doesn't always mark the top and a higher high could be made. In my experience that higher high is only 15-30 points above the rollover mark, so your max drawdown would be 30 pts.
All of this is going on within my golden Weekly S/R chart:
We must consider this as a large reversal point.
We'll start with the SP-500 w/ ATR. It has approached a trendline that has marked previous tops and is looking to reverse.
The RUT gave and ADX sell signal and the DI's crossed above and below their associated trend lines.
All of this is going on within my golden Weekly S/R chart:
We must consider this as a large reversal point.
Monday, January 28, 2013
Swing Trend Indicator
The swing trend indicator is pushing up against two current trend channel lines. This usually results in a pullback for the SP-500, but the trend remains bullish.
Saturday, January 26, 2013
An Update on the future of the blog
I am in the process of re-focusing my efforts, but this blog shouldn't suffer. In the future I will post real time FOREX trades on a basis of 3-7 times per month as well as post swing trades which should last from a minimum of 3 weeks to multiple months.
REASONS: I believe most people do not wish to day trade, so why waste time posting multiple trades per day. I don't even daytrade much.
The FOREX trades will usually consist of a buy/sell signal trade that will last between 1-3 days. You won't need to monitor the trade, which I think is good for people who have day jobs or a life.
The market generally trends, so there's no reason we need to over-trade to try to capture every up and down. In fact, the majority of "losses" or losing out on gains is caused by over-trading. We'll keep this a simple long or short multi-week blog. I may even post a giant green up arrow or giant red down arrow on the home page with the direction I think the market is moving.
REASONS: I believe most people do not wish to day trade, so why waste time posting multiple trades per day. I don't even daytrade much.
The FOREX trades will usually consist of a buy/sell signal trade that will last between 1-3 days. You won't need to monitor the trade, which I think is good for people who have day jobs or a life.
The market generally trends, so there's no reason we need to over-trade to try to capture every up and down. In fact, the majority of "losses" or losing out on gains is caused by over-trading. We'll keep this a simple long or short multi-week blog. I may even post a giant green up arrow or giant red down arrow on the home page with the direction I think the market is moving.
Wednesday, January 23, 2013
An area of CAUTION
On January 8th I told you that the market was still bullish, and here we are up at 1493 and the charts are showing caution signals. All the daily charts reside within bull territory, but they are starting to show a couple of cracks. We'll first start with the SP-500 daily chart and where I think we are in the Elliott Wave count.
We are currently within the area where, based on the wave count, there are some solid resistances. If the count is correct a reversal in this area is highly likely.
The daily ADX chart hasn't provided a reliable signal since the buy at 1260, but it would've kept you with the overall trend. The +DI is still moving above it's current uptrend line, but the -DI has been producing positive divergences at the last 3 tops.
The daily MACD is still above it's uptrend line, but tested the longer term negative div line today. Also, the MACD Histo is showing negative div.
RSI above uptrend. When it breaks that uptrend line it will cause a Change In Trend.
As stated above, all of the daily indicators are still in the bull zone, including the swing trend indicator. The Swing Trend Indicator broke above a resistance line and turned full bull mode. It will take a price movement under the 3 and 10 dma's to put it on sell.
A fellow called D2K introduced me to the following chart which I modified to include the ADX for timing purposes. The signal comes once the horizontal line is crossed and then the price puts in a lower ADX reading than the previous day. This has not occurred yet, so it's still on buy (although I wouldn't be buying or adding to my position at the current time).
Next we'll move on to some shorter term charts and some bearish chart news. Once again, it is showing the area where the market should roll over if the count is correct.
Here is my current count on the hourly SP-500 chart.
The ADX has approached an area where the market will generally reverse trend. It's still the same setup, once the ADX gets to either the 35 or 40 mark then prints a lower level issues the buy or sell signal. There is a possibility that the -DI is putting in a positive divergence (which is bearish).
Swinging back out to a daily chart, the MO is putting in negative divergence to the new index highs, which is another reason for some caution here.
Summary:
Daily Trend = Bullish (but I believe caution is warranted here)
Hourly Trend = Bullish, but close to a reversal
We are currently within the area where, based on the wave count, there are some solid resistances. If the count is correct a reversal in this area is highly likely.
The daily ADX chart hasn't provided a reliable signal since the buy at 1260, but it would've kept you with the overall trend. The +DI is still moving above it's current uptrend line, but the -DI has been producing positive divergences at the last 3 tops.
The daily MACD is still above it's uptrend line, but tested the longer term negative div line today. Also, the MACD Histo is showing negative div.
RSI above uptrend. When it breaks that uptrend line it will cause a Change In Trend.
As stated above, all of the daily indicators are still in the bull zone, including the swing trend indicator. The Swing Trend Indicator broke above a resistance line and turned full bull mode. It will take a price movement under the 3 and 10 dma's to put it on sell.
A fellow called D2K introduced me to the following chart which I modified to include the ADX for timing purposes. The signal comes once the horizontal line is crossed and then the price puts in a lower ADX reading than the previous day. This has not occurred yet, so it's still on buy (although I wouldn't be buying or adding to my position at the current time).
Next we'll move on to some shorter term charts and some bearish chart news. Once again, it is showing the area where the market should roll over if the count is correct.
Here is my current count on the hourly SP-500 chart.
The ADX has approached an area where the market will generally reverse trend. It's still the same setup, once the ADX gets to either the 35 or 40 mark then prints a lower level issues the buy or sell signal. There is a possibility that the -DI is putting in a positive divergence (which is bearish).
Swinging back out to a daily chart, the MO is putting in negative divergence to the new index highs, which is another reason for some caution here.
Summary:
Daily Trend = Bullish (but I believe caution is warranted here)
Hourly Trend = Bullish, but close to a reversal
Tuesday, January 8, 2013
Market is still bullish
I always base my EW counts off a certain set of indicators including the most valuable to my counts, my Swing Trend Indicator. It gave a caution sell signal, but remained bullish throughout. The caution sell provided us with an uptrend line identifying when the uptrend should end unless the move is going to become a full-blown bull move - as it has in the past.
This risk chart isn't making me overly confident in being long, but the markets don't always sync.
The indicator is coming up to an important resistance line and the uptrend line on the lower indicator says this bull move has to end by Friday or it will most likely turn into a full bull trend.
Next we'll drop down to the other daily charts with indicators. The latest down move gave us trendlines that should show us when the uptrend ends (once the indicators cross below these lines)
SP-500 MACD
SP-500 RSI Had another bullish CIT recently
SP-500 Stoch RSI - Still in bull zone
The next hourly chart shows we were due for a pullback solely based on the ADX. If the 23.6 retrace was the extent of the pullback, which I believe it was today, then the pullback is MOST LIKELY a B wave.
This risk chart isn't making me overly confident in being long, but the markets don't always sync.
Sunday, December 30, 2012
Another CIT - Trend now BEARISH
This past week we had a change in trend from the December 17th bullish CIT. All daily indicators are now bearish, and the Swing Trend Indicator has flashed a cautious sell.
The charts, starting with the ADX which hasn't given a signal since a BUY on June 6th. The only signal this chart shows is the cross of the -DI above the +DI, however that ADX is below 20 which means the market isn't trending strongly.
Stoch RSI 34 went bearish on Friday, December 21st with a trendline break.
Daily RSI went bearish on the 21st with a CIT signal
Daily MACD also broke it's trendline and the Histo has gone negative
We must be cognizant of longer term charts (weekly) which are still bullish. The weekly RSI on the SP-500 sits on trendline support
And the weekly MACD is still fully in the bullish zone
Forgot to mention the Swing Trend Indicator (Daily) - Price has dropped below the 3dsma, but not below the 10dsma which would issue the full sell signal.
I had a short position going into this week. I covered those positions this week and went long. I didn't like the price action off the low so cut that trade and went into the weekend flat. I will be looking to get short next week to play the change in trend. I may get whipsawed a bit getting into this position, but will accept the drawdown and set my stops appropriately.
Peace,
Jim
The charts, starting with the ADX which hasn't given a signal since a BUY on June 6th. The only signal this chart shows is the cross of the -DI above the +DI, however that ADX is below 20 which means the market isn't trending strongly.
Stoch RSI 34 went bearish on Friday, December 21st with a trendline break.
Daily RSI went bearish on the 21st with a CIT signal
Daily MACD also broke it's trendline and the Histo has gone negative
We must be cognizant of longer term charts (weekly) which are still bullish. The weekly RSI on the SP-500 sits on trendline support
And the weekly MACD is still fully in the bullish zone
Forgot to mention the Swing Trend Indicator (Daily) - Price has dropped below the 3dsma, but not below the 10dsma which would issue the full sell signal.
I had a short position going into this week. I covered those positions this week and went long. I didn't like the price action off the low so cut that trade and went into the weekend flat. I will be looking to get short next week to play the change in trend. I may get whipsawed a bit getting into this position, but will accept the drawdown and set my stops appropriately.
Peace,
Jim
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