Swing Trend Indicator and Daily Indicators

The US Indices recovered enough to void the Swing Trend Indicator's intra-day sell signal, and that's why I use it as an EOD indicator.

The SP-500 Daily Indicators are currently a mixed bag with some on sell and some neutral (meaning still bullish).

 The ADX issued a sell signal, but sell signals based off this indicator allow the SP-500 to run up 20-40 more points and still be valid. In most cases it causes an immediate sell-off, but there are occasions when the market runs higher before it reverses. Also, the ADX didn't reach a level that gives better short/buy opportunities (the 35-40 level). If the market starts down tomorrow, I'll probably jump into shorts.

 There's no good trendline that can be drawn on the MACD at this point, and there has yet to be a cross, so I'll just monitor it, but we can basically trash this indicator for now.

 RSI Gave a change in trend (CiT) on Monday, March 3rd when it broke the uptrend line and put in a negative divergence on the new high in the SP-500. This indicator is bearish, but moreso if it breaks the 60 level.

 StochRSI broke it's uptrend line, but still resides in bullish territory. It needs to drop below the red line to be on sell.

Stochastics broke below the prior low created on March 3rd and below the 80 level, issuing a sell signal. This indicator is bearish.

The SP-500 broke the newly drawn uptrend line connecting the February 5th and March 3rd lows (can be seen on every chart except the STI). Today, it backtested that broken trend line. That could also be bearish.

The indicators are too mixed for me to change the blogs stance from bullish to bearish, so I'll wait another day. Obviously caution is warranted for the bulls.

USD/JPY ***Book 1/2 Profits***

Booking 1/2 profits in USD/JPY for 68 pips. US Equities are NOT gaining downside traction at this time, so I've been working on an alternate count for USD/JPY

This would allow for another move higher in the pair and US Equities. Stop-loss to breakeven @ 103.38 on the second 1/2. Will look for places to re-add if the downside prevails.

Swing Trend Indicator

As of this second, the swing trend indicator is on TENTATIVE SELL.
It is an EOD indicator, so I will need to see the close before establishing positions.

Updates

AUD/NZD - I guess booking 1/2 profits for 68 pips and adjusting my stop-loss to breakeven on the remaining 1/2 was the prudent trade to make. Trade closed. We'll call it 34 pips of profit since it was only 1/2 position.

USD/JPY - Trade still open. Am 40% short from an average price of 103.38. Action started looking a little better today. Reducing my stop-loss to 103.785. Will look for an opportunity to add the other 60% to this trade, probably on a retrace.

SP-500 - Daily indicators still on buy, but are close to rolling. Also the Swing Trend Indicator is close to giving a tentative sell signal. Nothing has issued a sell signal as of todays close EXCEPT for RUT, which issued an ADX sell signal.

Remember the Forest

If you follow the markets daily, it's easy to get caught up in price movements that don't mean much to the overall structure of the market. I trade a little differently than other EW Theorists whereas I break some rules as long as the overall structure looks and feels correct on larger timeframes.

Here are a couple of charts from 2013 which reflect what I believe the current market structure to be.

Green wave iii topped out at 1850, which was a little higher than the mark I had on the chart, but it was still expected. I had green wave iv around 1720, and it bottomed at 1738 before the next leg higher. This chart was published on July 10th, 2013.

The above chart showed one possible path the market could take to reach the wave 3 target of 1920, which was an expanding diagonal triangle. At the time of publishing, the market was overlapping so it was a viable option at the time. Either way, the forecast was the same. Higher levels to come.

We are now getting near the to wave 3 target published. It has the ability to run up to 2100, but I don't believe it will do so quite yet. There are significant cycles aligning for an interim top in the market. We must be diligent and look to the trees (daily charts) to pinpoint these reversals.

The VIX Cycle low is due on Monday, March 10th. The Spring Solstice is the following week, coming on March 20th. The SP-500 is currently running up the the 50% fib fan line, once these lines break they are very tough to overcome. Fib Fan in yellow:

I will be on the lookout for the green wave iii high in the coming sessions, with a retrace down to 1740-1650 probable.

AUD/NZD Update

I'm still long AUD/NZD from 1.0663 per this post 

http://unbiasedswingtrades.blogspot.com/2014/02/long-audnzd-106630.html

I'm booking half profit right here at 1.0743 and adjusting my stop-loss to my entry price on the remaining half.

Booking 80 pips normalized to 68 pips. Note this is a longer term trade so I shouldn't even be booking profit on it, but the chart is showing a wedge formation.

USD/JPY Booking 168 Pips

I just booked 168 pips in my USD/JPY long trade. I am also entering my first scale short right here. C=A in TIME at around 10:00 CST tonight (vertical, white line on the chart). It is also being capped by the FRZ for a wave 2 flat at the moment (103.10).

Entered 20% of short trade at 103.08 with 105.40 SL and 96 TP.

I will ADD to this trade at the two higher FRZs highlighted on the chart; 20% at 103.65 and 60% at 104.40. I will also ADD to the trade 100% on a break below 101.10.

Previous Chart: Took on a third corrective option, grrrr.

Trade Example: I want to be short 1M or 10 lots. I short 2 lots now, 2 lots @ 103.65 and 6 lots @ 104.40
I will add another 10 lots on a break of 101.10 and be a total of 2M short.

USD/JPY - Flat?

USD/JPY has reached the first fibonacci resistance zone at 103.10.  There are two others above, which are noted on the chart. The white vertical line is where wave 2 = wave 1 in TIME which comes in today/tomorrow based off the daily chart.

USD/JPY - Still Bullish

From this post on February 27th 

http://unbiasedswingtrades.blogspot.com/2014/02/usdjpy-currently-long.html

My initial trade was stopped out, but I did re-enter @ 101.40 yesterday.

The reason why is because I still thought the long setup was valid, and I was still bullish US Equities. The following chart shows the relationship of USD/JPY and the SP-500:

The small b wave on the right side of the chart ran a little lower than anticipated, but has since showed a nice surge off the bottom that formed. The box on the chart represents a price/time relationship that should hold the move up in dollar/yen and also help form an equity market top. The focus range highlighted in the chart is 103-104.50.

I am watching how the c wave moves up to see if it finds resistance at and major fib levels on the way up. Particularly .618 and .786. Until it breaks above those levels around 102.20 and 102.50, the bullish trade is under caution.

Using analysis across markets allows me to focus in on better trades than relying on each market separately. If I was bullish equities, I should've been bullish USD/JPY, and vice-versa. Which I was. 

I am setting sell-stops for USD/JPY @ 101.20 and will be adding a stop-loss to those orders at the prior high once the level is taken out. Because a break of 101.20 should open the selling up to a third wave down to test the 96 level which is shown on the chart above.

SP-500 Update

It's looks like we got the pullback I alluded to in the previous SP-500 post that said caution was coming. The RSI was above the 85 level which usually led to a pullback:

http://unbiasedswingtrades.blogspot.com/2014/02/sp-500-updatesome-caution-from.html

The reason I stayed bullish and didn't change the trend from UP on the blog is because not all indicators were confirming the market was rolling over, and I don't like to chase news.

The Daily charts are still bullish, and most indicators have given the updated trend lines I need to trade. Only until all indicators are bearish will the blog issue a new trend signal.

The ADX issued a buy signal at the lows and has since showed trendless. Discard this indicator for now.

The MACD has given us a little squiggle to draw an uptrend line. This line will need to be broken for a sell signal.

The RSI turned down from the 85 level giving us that short term pullback yesterday. The low it created yesterday gives me the new uptrend line.

The StochRSI Never got below the bearish below line and has since turned up. I have a new uptrend line on this indicator now as well.

Stochastics are still in bull territory.

The Swing Trend Indicator hasn't even blinked since the tentative buy on 2/7 and full buy on 2/12