CIT - Change In Trend

The latest dip in the SP-500 has given us our CIT line on the daily RSI. Do not expect a change in trend until this line is broken.

***New Trade Alert***

Sell AUD/USD at the market. SL for entire order is 1.06200, take profit 1.000 (subject to revision based on short term counts)

Setup chart:

State of the Markets

I am still bullish the US equity markets until early 2013 (perhaps as soon as January). I've purposely left Elliott Wave labeling off the following charts so I don't turn people away who may not trust them. The first chart is the daily SP-500 with two simple moving averages, the 19 and 39. This is basically like putting a macd in the middle of your chart.

Notice there has yet to be a bullish cross, but I suspect prices will come down to the 1392 level to sync these MA's back up before we can proceed with another rise in the SP-500.

My favorite indicator, the ADX. Maybe because I've made so much money just using this for long and short entries. We have NOT received an ADX signal since the buy at 1260. It was getting close to a sell signal when we were up testing 1470, but no. Recently we had a bullish DI cross, but as seen from the chart that tends to whipsaw. Technically, we are still on ADX buy since 1260, so that's bullish.

Stoch RSI became bullish on Monday, November 19th. It will not turn bearish until we drop below the red line on the chart.

My Swing Trend Indicator is still bullish as of today.

With all of this daily information I have to remain bullish at this time. I am looking for a dip to the 1392 area in the SP-500 in the coming week or two, but I think that will be another buying opportunity for now. I try not to look very far into the future because the future is always changing. We need to adapt on a daily basis, thus I look at daily charts. For now they remain bullish.

Peace,

Jim

Chart Update

My internal clock is still a little off thanks to my recent trip, so I've had time to go over some charts early this morning. All my daily indicators are still bullish since the buy signal in June, so I still have to post bullish charts that corroborate the bullish scenario playing out.

I'll start with a chart of my Swing Trend Indicator, which hasn't even had a 3/10 MA cross since this rally began. It remains on buy and is even increasing the slope of it's rise. I use this indicator, along with others, to help keep track of the EW count.

My daily Elliott Wave count - Bull trend with an upward bias

$SPX:TLT Weekly chart with bollinger bands. Bullish while above middle band, bearish below.

And finally, my take on oil. I'll be looking to initiate a short position near 105.

In addition to these charts, I will post an updated S/R Chart showing that we broke above the close resistance levels. Current resistance levels lie roughly 30-40 points higher than we are now.

So currently I am still bullish, but that can change at any time. If I see something that changes my view/stance, I'll be sure to post an update. Stay tuned.

Peace,

Jim

Back from vacation

Well folks, I'm back from vacation. My swing trend indicator is still long and is up 37.54% since it initiated it's buy signal in June. Not too shabby. Oil passed 100 this morning and is getting close to my target short range. I will probably intiate the first short at 105.00. Will update with charts and more commentary later.

Peace.

Jim

Update

Daily indicators are starting to turn bearish, but the swing trend indicator is still bullish. Nothing new yet, still long.

I will be on vacation for two weeks, but I'll try to update if the swing trend indicator turns bearish.

Oil update

I'm still looking for a completion of the "D" wave higher in oil. The lower horizontal line is the main target, but it may run higher. I'll use the lower line to initiate a short position.

Updated S/R Chart for good measure



EUR/USD Coming to Solid Fib Support

UPDATE

All daily charts and indicators are still bullish. All my swing trend indicators are still bullish. Long and strong is still the way to be. One cautious indicator is showing up on the hourly charts, and that is the hourly ADX has risen over the 40 line. A rollover of this indicator should show some weakness (pullback) in the SP-500, but the sustainability of the pullback is unknown at this time.

SP-500 Hourly ADX

Peace.

Tracking a couple of counts - looking for clarity.

I'm currently tracking a few daily counts. A couple are bearish, a couple bullish. During times like this I sit on my hands so as not to make a terrible trade since capital preservation is my number one goal. The Daily ADX gave a buy signal back around 1290 on the SP-500. Every signal has been met with an opposite signal in the past. So there's no point being overly bearish here. I must wait for a conclusion and establish a trading plan.

Daily ADX Bull/Sell Setup Chart

My Swing Trade Trend Indicator is still on bullish buy

Will post as soon as I take on a new swing trade.

Peace.