Back from vacation

Well folks, I'm back from vacation. My swing trend indicator is still long and is up 37.54% since it initiated it's buy signal in June. Not too shabby. Oil passed 100 this morning and is getting close to my target short range. I will probably intiate the first short at 105.00. Will update with charts and more commentary later.

Peace.

Jim

Update

Daily indicators are starting to turn bearish, but the swing trend indicator is still bullish. Nothing new yet, still long.

I will be on vacation for two weeks, but I'll try to update if the swing trend indicator turns bearish.

Oil update

I'm still looking for a completion of the "D" wave higher in oil. The lower horizontal line is the main target, but it may run higher. I'll use the lower line to initiate a short position.

Updated S/R Chart for good measure



EUR/USD Coming to Solid Fib Support

UPDATE

All daily charts and indicators are still bullish. All my swing trend indicators are still bullish. Long and strong is still the way to be. One cautious indicator is showing up on the hourly charts, and that is the hourly ADX has risen over the 40 line. A rollover of this indicator should show some weakness (pullback) in the SP-500, but the sustainability of the pullback is unknown at this time.

SP-500 Hourly ADX

Peace.

Tracking a couple of counts - looking for clarity.

I'm currently tracking a few daily counts. A couple are bearish, a couple bullish. During times like this I sit on my hands so as not to make a terrible trade since capital preservation is my number one goal. The Daily ADX gave a buy signal back around 1290 on the SP-500. Every signal has been met with an opposite signal in the past. So there's no point being overly bearish here. I must wait for a conclusion and establish a trading plan.

Daily ADX Bull/Sell Setup Chart

My Swing Trade Trend Indicator is still on bullish buy

Will post as soon as I take on a new swing trade.

Peace.

Long as of 1350 and buying below

The SP-500 put in a good reversal off the lows today, and although the daily charts are still in bear territory, the hourly charts are saying bears should show caution or get bullish quick.

The first chart consists of the count and support level I had yesterday going into today. Was short at 1374 and got long at 1350, but thought they'd dip it under 1350 to suck some more bears in, which happened perfectly.

Now let's look at some indicators within the hourly chart.

The ADX rolled over and the -DI broke it's uptrend line. I usually short right when the ADX rolls over when it's over 40, but we didn't have a completed wave count down yesterday. We do today.

The EW Oscillator has put in positive divergence on the c wave compared to the a wave:

Similar to the EWOsc, the MACD has put in positive divergence from the a wave low and tested breaking out of it's downtrend channel at the end of the day:

The Hourly price is now above the 10 hour EMA and the 10m chart is above the 67sma, both of which are bullish.


Conclusion: We may have one more low to come under today's low, but I'll be buying it.

Happy trading all!

Jim Genosky

Price and Time Relationships

Expanding Geometric Ratio Series (Golden Mean):

1.000, 1.272, 1.618, 2.058, 2.618, 3.33

Contracting Geometric Ratio Series (Golden Mean):

0.786, 0.618, 0.486, 0.382, 0.300, 0.236

Harmonic Ratio Series of the Square:

Square Root of 2 - 1.4142                   
Sacred Cut - 0.707

Expanding Harmonic Series of the Sqaure:

1.000, 1.4142, 2.000, 2.828, 4.000, 5.656

Contracting Harmonic Series of the Square:

1.000, 0.7071, 0.500, 0.354, 0.250, 0.177

Expanding 3rd Dimension Harmonic Series (Cube):

1.000, 1.732, 3.000, 5.200, 9.000

Contracting 3rd Dimension Harmonic Series:

1.000, 0.577, 0.333, 0.192, 0.111

4th Dimension of the Square (Diagonal of 2 Squares):

Square Root of 5 = 2.236   Reciprocal = 0.447

Cardinal Ratios
Expanding Cardinal Ratio Series:

3.000, 2.236, 2.000, 1.732, 1.618, 1.414

Contracting Cardinal Ratio Series:

0.333, 0.447, 0.577, 0.618, 0.707

Gold and Oil update

Here are my projections for gold and oil.

Light Sweet Crude:

Any questions?

The State of the Markets - Markets Nearing Completion

Either the SP-500 put in the easiest, cleanest wave 4 in history, or it's still working on it. But I'm going to focus on RUT tonight and then come back to the SP-500. The RUT was the first to complete it's wave 4 and I'm pretty sure it's poised to head higher. It is hard to gauge the markets right now since correlations are breaking down and my analysis of currencies, bonds, equities and commodities is askew. Anywho, the comments are on the chart, and I believe this to be the count with a kickoff move into wave 5. Any pullbacks toward 804 should be bought with a stop-loss at the wave 4 low. I'm looking for about a 10% gain in RUT from here, so buying TNA seems to be the best option.

The one thing about the chart I don't like is the extreme crossover of the moving averages, but I attribute that to the pop out of the channel in wave v of 3 making wave 4 a little stronger than normal.

Additionally, my medium term swing indicator is back on buy.

Conclusion: Cautiously Bullish and low of wave 4 is in place.