If Copper Doesn't Lie

Here's a weekly chart of copper with SPY overlay. Copper tends to lead the market by a week or so and most know that I've been bullish copper recently. Based on this count the SP-500 should reach new highs or a double top near 1370. Keep watching!

Changing My Longer Term Count

My previous recommendations asserted that we were entering a long term bull market until Oct.-Dec. 2015. I maintain that position, however I'm changing my current count from a third wave up to a 5th of 1 wave up. This basically means that a new high over 1370 should be shortable for 3-6 months, then the super bull market to all-time highs on the SP-500 should resume. Turning points will be Late July (28-29) then late December. I'm not 100% sure on this call, but something fishy in the markets and debt crises seems to be taking place.

PLEASE MAKE A COMMENT TO THIS TEST POST

I'm trying out some code to have a reply to comments made so I can more efficiently answer to comments or questions. Thank you in advance!

Special thanks to Sean at www.beforeitsnews.com for the tip (if it works).

I DON'T KNOW HOW TO RESPOND TO COMMENTS!!!!

I feel terrible that I haven't responded to comments from the blog. Please email me @ geno369@yahoo.com with your specific question and I'll either respond back or create a blog post addressing your question. Once again, I apologize!!!

Jim Genosky

The $4 Trillion Campaign

I trade US Equities as well as Forex, so I feel I can see where  there is manipulation in the system. To be honest, there is absolutely ZERO manipulation in US securities, although the FEAR BLOGS will have you believe so. However, there is manipulation in the FX forum that can carry over to US Equities.

I will dive into the post in more detail in the future, but for the time being, just realize that Japan enters into the FX market quite often trying to boost their holdings. This can be seen by swift 50-200 pip gains/losses per currency. This weighs on the RISK ON/RISK OFF environment that effects all market participants.

I recently heard Jim Cramer talk about how useless the risk environment is, and I TOTALLY disagree. I can trade US Equities by watching the AUD/USD...PERIOD!!! Actually, one of my proprietary indicators measures all risk currencies and I play US Equities based on that! To trade a risk indicator in US Equities!!!! And Cramer says it's useless???

Who Could've Called It?

Apparently the markets have reversed course, once again when the bears were waiting for the elusive 3 of 3 of 3 of 3, etc. down. Who could've called it? I believe I did once again, although a tad early. I bought SSO at 49.25 and I bought UCO at 37.80, almost where it was announced that we were releasing reserves. I told my brother that releasing those reserves would mark a short term botttom within two days, and I seem correct in that rhetoric.

I'm already lightening my load on long positions because we need to listen to the bears, and sometimes the market panders, hahaaa (pandas, panda bear?), to the bears, to keep them in the market. Remember, someone has the other side of your trade!!!

I sold UCO for 13% (in three days) and I sold all of my SSO. I have now entered short term SPY puts. Why? I locked in good profits since oil dropped below 91, which was my target, and the SSO was an okay trade, meaning I didn't lose money.

There is still a chance we get a low under 1258, although I posted before I only give it 15% odds. The Wilshire already reached wave 1 zone, but until the majors DJIA and S&P do, I'm not getting bullish complacent. We all know that the market drops much faster than it inclines.

Anyway, I'm going on vacation tonight with 10 contracts of SPY 130 puts under my belt. I'll be back Tuesday, perhaps, after a nice long weekend of fishing. Remember, it's not only about making money, you still have to live life!!

The VIX - Mystery Solved

The VIX is meant to measure fear in the market. When the VIX reaches extreme levels the bears are in control, when it drops to lower levels it measures complacency which generally is a bullish market. Looking at a weekly chart of the VIX gives me many answers. First of all, the bulls are not yet in control of this rally. This leads me to believe that A. There is MUCH more upside yet to come, or B. this is a bear market rally with lower lows yet to come.

My analysis on other aspects has told me the 2009 lows are in place, therefore I have to resort to option A. The following chart has it's own annotations, so I fail to see the need to repeat them here. I expect the VIX to make a new "Green Zone".

Does Elliott Wave Theory Give You Something to Trade?

The short answer, which I'm sure you weren't expecting from me, is HELL TO THE NO! There is no 3-5-3-5-3-5- whatever count imaginable that could make me trade off of it. BUT EWT is based on market participants and "thinking", which I can get behind. EWT theory is NOT a useless tool, and I hope I've shown that by using it PROPERLY! It's when people try to count waves without using other information available to make a rational choice that it becomes USELESS. I know people who use EW and I know of people who use EW PROPERLY! The latter are usually the ones bucking the trend and mostly correct. If you would like to know how to use EW PROPERLY!!!! Let me know. But don't bash EW because some people disregard rules and suck at it!

Trend: Update

So did we get the confirmations I was looking for this morning? We sure did.

First chart:

Both trendlines breached. I'm disappointed it didn't make it over the white horizontal line though.

Second Chart:

Yellow crossed above white, a bull trend signal.

Third Chart:

SP-500 Hourly and current count.

I would place the odds at 85% that a bottom is in.

Best of luck!

Jim Genosky

Trend

I have been watching my favorite two charts for confirmation that the bear trend is over, and neither have confirmed this yet. If the bulls can hold onto the gap up this morning we may get confirmation.

Here's the first chart:

In this chart we want the red line to break above both white downtrend lines. Then a sustained move above the top horizontal white line would be a sustained bull market.

In this chart we need the yellow line to cross above the white line. Right now both lines are at a zero value, meaning bearish. A cross is the first buy signal where I'll unload a 50% lonf position. Once the yellow line goes above the horizontal green line I'll unload my final 25% long position.

Best of luck to ya'll!