TWTR @ 36

I'm going to pick up some OTM TWTR calls at 36. Probably June 42's for $1.

US GDP

08:30 AM
US Q1 GDP is extremely weak at 0.1% vs 1.2% expected

This is currently weighing on the USD a bit. I'm adding a buy stop on AUD/USD @ .9305.

Not much reaction from US Indices yet, but the volatility cycle is bottoming. I don't know if this will produce a lower reading in the VIX from the April 22nd low or not, but if it does produce a lower low I will be upping my purchase.

AUD/USD - Bought the Dip

AUD/USD found support in the .92300 area just below the first fib confluence for a 4th wave. It put in a nice bullish candle bouncing from the area where wave 4 = .382* wave 3 and wave 4 = wave 2. I have placed my stop-loss just below that candle and plan to add to this position on any pullbacks.

If I am stopped out on this trade I will be watching the .91900 area where wave 4 would equal .50*3 and 127.2*2.

The take profit on this trade is up in the .95000-.96000 range.

Most Probable SP-500 Path

I still have the above chart as the most probable path for the SP-500 the coming years. One thing to watch: The Monthly ADX is above 40, a drop below 40 will issue a longer term sell signal. I will also be watching for a rollover from this indicator.

UVXY Calls

I've been collecting some June 61 UVXY Calls in anticipation of higher volatility per last weeks post.

VIX - Entering a Period of Higher Volatility

We are close to the timeframe that the VIX should start jumping. The reversal box runs from Tuesday 4/22 which produced the low so far to Thursday May 1st and is expected to top around June 2nd.

Tired of the Talk

Playing the market isn't an easy game. Not only do you need to beat the market, you need to deal with people telling you why you're wrong. People who want to be long and people who want to be short are the people who make the market.

My track record has proven itself and there's nothing else I can teach people. I've provided charts of the indicators I use for swing trading; utilize those charts. I've provided other indicators to identify bottoms, which are far easier than identifying tops.

I have my first child being born mid-July (I call him Jimmy Jr., my wife won't tell me names because I'm a loudmouth)  and a new house closing mid-May. I have too much going on right now to be a viable option for trading.

I'll probably post swing reversals when they happen.

I wish the best of luck to everyone who reads this, honestly and heartfelt.

Good luck.

Jim

Update

No daily indicators have rolled from sell to buy yet, but I am seeing some signs in other indicators telling me a bull move is on the way. One such case is BB on the VIX. The chart explains the setup.

Note: The first blue line actually was NOT a buy signal because there wasn't a close below the candle that closed inside of the BB.

Weekly Cycle - Bull vs. Bear

The weekly MACD has broken below the uptrend line from the March 2009 low. It really doesn't matter much to me, but it does show me I should be cautious. If you believe the move from 2009 is a large correction, the market has probably topped in an ABCXABC double zigzag pattern, which is marked as "or" then the wave label on the above chart. The cycle extended a bit just like in 2007.

If you are a bull, which is the wave count I'm following, you should be looking for a wave (iv) low to get long once again. that count is displayed on both the MACD and the chart.

To find where wave (iv) should bottom we need to use the fib ratios of the previous waves and look for a reversal zone. We also need to look at the time it took other waves to form.

The most obvious price for the SP-500 to find support is the 1750 area. When I look at charts of the Nasdaq and the Russell, both show a need to find support immediately, so who knows if the SP-500 can get that low.

Indicators on the Nasdaq and Russell have begun to enter areas where I start looking for reversals, the SP-500 and DJIA aren't even close. Therefore I will rely on the Nasdaq and Russell to find the turn and let you know when I see it.

Whipsaws & Short Term Trading

The whole point of this blog is to reduce the amount of time I spend analyzing the markets and increase the size of my gains by staying with the trend as long as possible. 

Having said that, the blog, meaning the blog owner, me, got long on February 6th at 1776. I then flipped to short on March 13th at 1846 booking 70 points of profit. 

From the swing to short at 1846 I lost 28.15 points because I adjusted my stop-loss from 1903 to 1874, something I shouldn't have done. I rarely adjust my stop-loss and take profit from my initial trade, and this is why. I should've left the stop at 1903 and ADDED to the position at 1873 instead of having to create a brand new short position.

I did maintain my bearish stance while everyone else was getting all bullish once again. I re-shorted on March 31st at 1873 and currently have half of that position left after booking 1/2 profit at 1834 on April 10th.

First trade: 70 points

Second Trade: -28.15 points

Third Trade: Booked 1/2 profit for 40 points, so I'll adjust that gain to 20 pts. since it was only 1/2 position.

Total: 61.85 pts. so far with 1/2 position still short.

Booked 1/2 Profits on Swing Shorts

At the EOD today I booked 1/2 profits on the shorts from 1873.

Q's - Give the Bulls the Benefit?

The bulls found support where wave c of 4 equals wave a of 4, and the area of the prior 4th wave. I'm giving the bulls the benefit of new highs over 91.36 as long as the previous low is not breached. I'm considering setting a sell-stop just under the prior 4th wave low at 83.74.

Chart:

Possible Ending Diagonal on the SP-500