Updates and New Trade on CMG

Lowered stop-loss on SPY trade to 169.03 all other trades remain open with same stops.

NEW TRADE:

Shorting CMG into this rise today. It's a good risk/reward setup after rising out of a fourth wave triangle.

Charts:

I'm seeing an e wave triangle within the larger (iv) wave triangle and a pop out of it. It has now entered the first Fib Resistance Zone and can run to touch 433-35 where I will add to the short position.

Updates to Open Trades

I'm still tracking the bearish count in the SP-500 and have adjusted my stop-loss lower. The benefit of trends is they allow us to adjust our stops higher or lower reducing our risk.

Chart:

EUR/USD is starting to kick in to the upside this morning. The trade is currently up 50 pipsmaking each contract up $500, or $50 per mini.

I've also been watching a bullish count in gold. Stay long with 1318 stop-loss is my current recommendation.

EUR/USD Trade Update

The trade looks to be working in our favor. Cancel open orders at 1.34500, we will be looking to add to this position during the pullback this morning. Also, raise stop-loss to prior low at 1.34600, risking less than 20 pips now.

EDIT: Add a buy stop at 1.35200

***NEW TRADE ALERT*** EUR/USD

I'm looking to get long EUR/USD and I'm buying 1/2 position ATM (at the market) and 1/2 @ 1.34500. Lately I've been layering on with 1/2 or 1/3 positions because on numerous occasions I've missed an entry by less than 10 pips and I'm tired of not being filled and missing a move. I believe we are heading up to the 1.36000 area to complete wave (iii).

Setup Chart:

The stop-loss on this trade is 1.34250 and initial take profit level is 1.36 the figure.

An Apology to the Readers

I wanted to apologize to the readers of this blog. Although I caught the lows on the SP-500 and DJIA almost perfectly, I took profits and re-shorted way too soon without an confirmations from my favorite indicators. I had wave 2 blinders on and focused more on what I believed to be the correct count and not enough on the indicators. The charts were clearly displaying buy signals on September 3rd around 1651 which means I should be 100 pts in the profit instead of stopped out of short positions for losses.

All of the daily indicators at this point are still bullish, but many are becoming overextended. Let's go through them.

SP-500 MACD:

The MACD gave the buy signal and is rising back to overbought conditions. It is also testing a downward trendline connecting the former two MACD tops. A market top may be near.

SP-500 RSI(14)

Again, the RSI gave a CIT (Change in Trend) signal, with positive divergence, and has now risen to an overbought level. A break of the upsloping trendline will give another CIT.

SP-500 Stoch RSI 34:

And again, the Stoch RSI gave a buy signal both when it broke the downtrend line and when it crossed above the 40 level as annotated on the chart. It is now firmly in the bullish zone and only a break below 66 will cause a sell signal.

SP-500 ADX:

And my favorite indicator rolled over near the 35 level implying a trend change was happening, a buy signal. The ADX didn't correct down too much before starting to rise again, showing the strength of this current uptrend. It is, however, getting close to the signal area, so any rollover in the next week or two I will sell into.

Again, I apologize for the terrible trading this month. By looking at your past mistakes you can avoid them in the future. I usually don't get overly involved in an Elliott Wave count and ignore everything else, but on these trades it happened. My objectivity was blurred and I will do my best not to let it happen again.

Moving on.

We are at a crazy confluence of time and cycles. There is a OPEX high/low cycle that has been close in picking tops and bottoms. The last cycle was a low, so this cycle should complete as a high. There is also a VIX cycle which bottoms near 9/20/13. On the charts above there are vertical lines which have marked some significant highs in the past. The next vertical line in this series shows up tomorrow, September 20th. We also have the Autumn Equinox taking place and equinoxes have proven to reverse current trends in the market. Finally, the One Indicator chart is definitely looking a little shaky.

Equinox:

Similar Conditions (One Indicator):

The other charts are located on another computer, so I will publish them tomorrow.

VIX Cycle:

OPEX Cycle:

One Indicator - Similar Situation

Of course, just because something happened in the past doesn't necessarily mean it will occur in the future, but this is a chart I have been watching along with the equinox chart. We are getting a very large divergence between the indicator and the price of SPY.

Chart: 

Equinox Chart: 

I refer to these charts as SIMILAR CONDITIONS

***NEW TRADE ALERT*** AUD/JPY

I sold AUD/JPY @ 92.90 with a 93.60 Stop-Loss and 90.80 First Take Profit Target.

Risk 70 pips / Reward 210 pips = .33333

Setup Chart:

**NEW TRADE ALERT*** SELL SP-500

Sell futures at the market (1684) with stop-loss at 1700. You can sell es, spy or buy any leveraged ETF, just make sure if 1700 on futures is surpassed you close the position.

EEM - Accumulating October 41 puts

The EEM chart is looking very clean and ready to head south. I am accumulating October 41 Puts today and tomorrow near $1.00.

Chart:

DJIA Update

When the hourly ATR (average True Range) of the DJIA gets below 30, an interim high is usually in place.

Chart:

AUD/JPY

We caught a nice move lower in AUD/JPY last night and have closed the position. I'm looking for a retracement up to 92.60 to sell into with a 90.80 1st take profit level.

Chart:

SPY Intra-Day Update

The bear case is almost dead. Based on this count, there are no more waves left to the upside so we need to start selling off hard. The DJIA is up against former trendline resistance connecting the 12/31 and 6/24 lows as well as the 61.8 retracement of the entire move down. Nasdaq looks to have completed an Ending Diagonal wave C which I posted yesterday or the day before. Everything is lined up for a selloff. Will it happen?

Chart:

NOTE: QQQ Chart is from September 9th

CMG

Chipotle is coming up to two fib resistance zones, one just under the recent high and one over the most recent high. The Elliott Wave Count is nearing completion.

NOTE: Many individual stocks are nearing completion of major upward EW counts. We may be in for an even larger decline than previously estimated.

CHART:

Intra-Day Update

It's hard to count the last C wave on the chart, so there could be one more move up.

Chart:

EXAS Update

August 16th Chart:

September 5th Chart:

Today's Chart:

QQQ - Something to Watch

Just watching how this plays out here.

Chart:

Also, the 61.8% retrace of the 2000-2002 decline comes in near 82.

AUD/JPY ***NEW TRADE ALERT***

I'm entering 1/2 position short AUD/JPY @ 92.20 and 1/2 position @ 92.40. Both entries will have a 93.00 Stop loss and 90.30 take profit for now. I have us completing wave 3 of A up on larger timescale charts. Zoomed in the 3 wave is in it's final 5th wave.

Chart:

Zooming in on completion of the iv wave on the chart above gives us this picture:

So I'm expecting at least a 4th wave down. Proper take profit levels can not be established until completion of the 3rd wave, so I'll keep you posted on this trade.

LNKD - Rally Long in the Tooth

LNKD has entered an area where I expect it to start pulling back for a month or two. There is solid Fib Resistance residing in the area of current prices and the wave count suggests it should pull back in a 4th wave down to the 200 area in the coming month(s). The ADX has already rolled over on the daily chart suggesting the trend is exhausting and the DMI's are displaying bearish divergences.

Chart:

Trade Suggestion: Enter LNKD October or November Puts

Intra-Day Update

Whether my previous count was correct and the boost this morning in the SP-500 completed wave 5 of C of B or this alternate count posted by EWTnewbie is correct and we head up to the 1666 area. Either way, I'm adding to my puts here at 1660 and adding more at 1666. There is a solid fib resistance zone (FRZ) in that area where c of y = a of y, y = 1.618*w, the 50% retrace of the entire move down as well as the prior 4th wave.

Chart:

NFLX - Double Top at 305 area?

Netflix is running up in what I believe is a wave 5 of major degree.

Weekly Chart:

There's a chance this stock will run up to 500, but I believe it is overdue for a correction. When zooming in to the daily chart we can see it is finishing what I believe to be either all of the 5th wave of Major degree or leg i of 5. A decent correction is due. I will be playing the NFLX October 2013 280 puts on this. This IS NOT an official trade alert and I'm only spending about 3K on the puts.

Daily Chart:  

***NEW Trade Alert*** Short USD/JPY

I'm setting an If/Then OCO limit sell order in USD/JPY. The limit sell is placed at 100.25 with a 101.50 Stop-loss and a 91 take profit level. Risk/Reward on this trade is 125 pips/1050 pips = .119. I believe we are either in minute ii of C down or in the C wave of a triangle. In either case, the high at 101.50 should not be exceeded before a move down. It is a longer term trade so I will update the trade as it progresses.

Chart:

SP-500 Intra-Day Update

I am currently short via DIA puts but want to bring your attention to something on the SP-500 chart. The decline lasted around 18 trading days and the recovery has so far been 6 days. This isn't a very good time relationship for a correction so I've put an alternate count together that will make the correction last a bit longer in time and price.

Chart:

Keep in mind that I'm currently short and satisfied with that, this is simply something to watch out for at the moment. I'll add to the short position when we break some key levels that I'll post in the next update.

EXAS

EXAS has broken up from an ending diagonal wave v of C of Y. That should be the end of the correction and should move up toward 21.50 in the coming months (or 0, who knows with these stocks). I recommend no more than 5% of a portfolio in this stock.

Chart:

EUR/USD

Draghi gave me some nice profits this morning when he just announced that they considered a rate cut at yesterdays meeting. Thank you Mr. Draghi. But we were short off the wave 4 prior to the announcement so were able to book a quick profit. EUR/USD is coming down to the fib support zone near 1.30800-1.30900 before it bounces in what I believe will be a wave 2 of A. I'll be looking to reshort EUR/USD in the coming days.

Chart:

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Thanks,

Jim

Intra-Day Update

Still holding long with 1627 stop-loss. Using the move down today to add to my September SPY Calls.

Chart: