Another CIT - Trend now BEARISH

This past week we had a change in trend from the December 17th bullish CIT. All daily indicators are now bearish, and the Swing Trend Indicator has flashed a cautious sell.

The charts, starting with the ADX which hasn't given a signal since a BUY on June 6th. The only signal this chart shows is the cross of the -DI above the +DI, however that ADX is below 20 which means the market isn't trending strongly.

Stoch RSI 34 went bearish on Friday, December 21st with a trendline break.

Daily RSI went bearish on the 21st with a CIT signal

Daily MACD also broke it's trendline and the Histo has gone negative

We must be cognizant of longer term charts (weekly) which are still bullish. The weekly RSI on the SP-500 sits on trendline support

And the weekly MACD is still fully in the bullish zone

Forgot to mention the Swing Trend Indicator (Daily) - Price has dropped below the 3dsma, but not below the 10dsma which would issue the full sell signal.

I had a short position going into this week. I covered those positions this week and went long. I didn't like the price action off the low so cut that trade and went into the weekend flat. I will be looking to get short next week to play the change in trend. I may get whipsawed a bit getting into this position, but will accept the drawdown and set my stops appropriately.

Peace,

Jim

CIT - Change In Trend

The latest dip in the SP-500 has given us our CIT line on the daily RSI. Do not expect a change in trend until this line is broken.

***New Trade Alert***

Sell AUD/USD at the market. SL for entire order is 1.06200, take profit 1.000 (subject to revision based on short term counts)

Setup chart:

State of the Markets

I am still bullish the US equity markets until early 2013 (perhaps as soon as January). I've purposely left Elliott Wave labeling off the following charts so I don't turn people away who may not trust them. The first chart is the daily SP-500 with two simple moving averages, the 19 and 39. This is basically like putting a macd in the middle of your chart.

Notice there has yet to be a bullish cross, but I suspect prices will come down to the 1392 level to sync these MA's back up before we can proceed with another rise in the SP-500.

My favorite indicator, the ADX. Maybe because I've made so much money just using this for long and short entries. We have NOT received an ADX signal since the buy at 1260. It was getting close to a sell signal when we were up testing 1470, but no. Recently we had a bullish DI cross, but as seen from the chart that tends to whipsaw. Technically, we are still on ADX buy since 1260, so that's bullish.

Stoch RSI became bullish on Monday, November 19th. It will not turn bearish until we drop below the red line on the chart.

My Swing Trend Indicator is still bullish as of today.

With all of this daily information I have to remain bullish at this time. I am looking for a dip to the 1392 area in the SP-500 in the coming week or two, but I think that will be another buying opportunity for now. I try not to look very far into the future because the future is always changing. We need to adapt on a daily basis, thus I look at daily charts. For now they remain bullish.

Peace,

Jim

Chart Update

My internal clock is still a little off thanks to my recent trip, so I've had time to go over some charts early this morning. All my daily indicators are still bullish since the buy signal in June, so I still have to post bullish charts that corroborate the bullish scenario playing out.

I'll start with a chart of my Swing Trend Indicator, which hasn't even had a 3/10 MA cross since this rally began. It remains on buy and is even increasing the slope of it's rise. I use this indicator, along with others, to help keep track of the EW count.

My daily Elliott Wave count - Bull trend with an upward bias

$SPX:TLT Weekly chart with bollinger bands. Bullish while above middle band, bearish below.

And finally, my take on oil. I'll be looking to initiate a short position near 105.

In addition to these charts, I will post an updated S/R Chart showing that we broke above the close resistance levels. Current resistance levels lie roughly 30-40 points higher than we are now.

So currently I am still bullish, but that can change at any time. If I see something that changes my view/stance, I'll be sure to post an update. Stay tuned.

Peace,

Jim

Back from vacation

Well folks, I'm back from vacation. My swing trend indicator is still long and is up 37.54% since it initiated it's buy signal in June. Not too shabby. Oil passed 100 this morning and is getting close to my target short range. I will probably intiate the first short at 105.00. Will update with charts and more commentary later.

Peace.

Jim

Update

Daily indicators are starting to turn bearish, but the swing trend indicator is still bullish. Nothing new yet, still long.

I will be on vacation for two weeks, but I'll try to update if the swing trend indicator turns bearish.

Oil update

I'm still looking for a completion of the "D" wave higher in oil. The lower horizontal line is the main target, but it may run higher. I'll use the lower line to initiate a short position.

Updated S/R Chart for good measure



EUR/USD Coming to Solid Fib Support

UPDATE

All daily charts and indicators are still bullish. All my swing trend indicators are still bullish. Long and strong is still the way to be. One cautious indicator is showing up on the hourly charts, and that is the hourly ADX has risen over the 40 line. A rollover of this indicator should show some weakness (pullback) in the SP-500, but the sustainability of the pullback is unknown at this time.

SP-500 Hourly ADX

Peace.

Tracking a couple of counts - looking for clarity.

I'm currently tracking a few daily counts. A couple are bearish, a couple bullish. During times like this I sit on my hands so as not to make a terrible trade since capital preservation is my number one goal. The Daily ADX gave a buy signal back around 1290 on the SP-500. Every signal has been met with an opposite signal in the past. So there's no point being overly bearish here. I must wait for a conclusion and establish a trading plan.

Daily ADX Bull/Sell Setup Chart

My Swing Trade Trend Indicator is still on bullish buy

Will post as soon as I take on a new swing trade.

Peace.

Long as of 1350 and buying below

The SP-500 put in a good reversal off the lows today, and although the daily charts are still in bear territory, the hourly charts are saying bears should show caution or get bullish quick.

The first chart consists of the count and support level I had yesterday going into today. Was short at 1374 and got long at 1350, but thought they'd dip it under 1350 to suck some more bears in, which happened perfectly.

Now let's look at some indicators within the hourly chart.

The ADX rolled over and the -DI broke it's uptrend line. I usually short right when the ADX rolls over when it's over 40, but we didn't have a completed wave count down yesterday. We do today.

The EW Oscillator has put in positive divergence on the c wave compared to the a wave:

Similar to the EWOsc, the MACD has put in positive divergence from the a wave low and tested breaking out of it's downtrend channel at the end of the day:

The Hourly price is now above the 10 hour EMA and the 10m chart is above the 67sma, both of which are bullish.


Conclusion: We may have one more low to come under today's low, but I'll be buying it.

Happy trading all!

Jim Genosky

Price and Time Relationships

Expanding Geometric Ratio Series (Golden Mean):

1.000, 1.272, 1.618, 2.058, 2.618, 3.33

Contracting Geometric Ratio Series (Golden Mean):

0.786, 0.618, 0.486, 0.382, 0.300, 0.236

Harmonic Ratio Series of the Square:

Square Root of 2 - 1.4142                   
Sacred Cut - 0.707

Expanding Harmonic Series of the Sqaure:

1.000, 1.4142, 2.000, 2.828, 4.000, 5.656

Contracting Harmonic Series of the Square:

1.000, 0.7071, 0.500, 0.354, 0.250, 0.177

Expanding 3rd Dimension Harmonic Series (Cube):

1.000, 1.732, 3.000, 5.200, 9.000

Contracting 3rd Dimension Harmonic Series:

1.000, 0.577, 0.333, 0.192, 0.111

4th Dimension of the Square (Diagonal of 2 Squares):

Square Root of 5 = 2.236   Reciprocal = 0.447

Cardinal Ratios
Expanding Cardinal Ratio Series:

3.000, 2.236, 2.000, 1.732, 1.618, 1.414

Contracting Cardinal Ratio Series:

0.333, 0.447, 0.577, 0.618, 0.707

Gold and Oil update

Here are my projections for gold and oil.

Light Sweet Crude:

Any questions?

The State of the Markets - Markets Nearing Completion

Either the SP-500 put in the easiest, cleanest wave 4 in history, or it's still working on it. But I'm going to focus on RUT tonight and then come back to the SP-500. The RUT was the first to complete it's wave 4 and I'm pretty sure it's poised to head higher. It is hard to gauge the markets right now since correlations are breaking down and my analysis of currencies, bonds, equities and commodities is askew. Anywho, the comments are on the chart, and I believe this to be the count with a kickoff move into wave 5. Any pullbacks toward 804 should be bought with a stop-loss at the wave 4 low. I'm looking for about a 10% gain in RUT from here, so buying TNA seems to be the best option.

The one thing about the chart I don't like is the extreme crossover of the moving averages, but I attribute that to the pop out of the channel in wave v of 3 making wave 4 a little stronger than normal.

Additionally, my medium term swing indicator is back on buy.

Conclusion: Cautiously Bullish and low of wave 4 is in place.

UPDATE On December 3rd Post - Rally Long in the Tooth