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CURRENT MARKET TREND: Up 5/27/16 @ 2090
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Thursday, February 20, 2014

QQQ - Tracking the High

I'm looking for the completion of the five wave sequence higher in QQQ. Here is the current updated chart that shows we are in the 5th wave higher. It also shows the FRZ (Fibonacci Resistance Zones) of wave 5 versus the previous subwaves. I can't remember having a scenario like this where nearly all the fib's of the 1st wave and waves 1-3 line up at nearly every level. The only fib resistance level where they are not in sync is where wave 5 would equal .50 (1+3).

All of these fib confluences are valid for reversal zones, which makes shorting this move even harder than usual.

The Chart:


We are currently at wave 5 = .618*1 and wave 5 = .236 (1+3), which isn't a very common Fib Confluence for the market to stop at. The more common occurrences happen when wave 5 is either equal to wave 1 or wave 5 = 1.618*1. The common fib for wave 5 vs. waves 1+3 is .382.

We can see from the chart that the next FRZ is the 93.85 level and that is precisely where wave 5 = wave 1 and wave 5 = .382 (1+3). I would expect a ton of resistance at this level and will most likely enter the first long-term scale short there.

Where we came from:

I have wave 1 of this move kicking off from 66.88 going up to 74.95 = 8.07 pts.
Wave 2 - 74.95 to 69.15 - 5.8 pts retracing wave 1 71.8% which is a little deep for a second wave
Wave 3 - 69.15 to 87.90 - 18.75 pts extending wave 1 232% which is typical of 3rd waves. We want to see the 3rd wave extend anywhere from 161.8% to 261.8% on these larger timeframes.
Wave 4 - 87.90 to 83.74 - 4.16 pts. retracing wave 3 22.18% which is very close to .236 fib and it retraced to the prior 4th wave at 84.05. We also measure wave 4's against wave 2's. It retraced nearly 72% of wave 2, which is typical.
Wave 5 - 83.74 - ???????? I'll be looking for 91.81-93.98 based off the fib confluences. 91.81 would hit the upper green trend channel on Wednesday, February 26th.

Time:

Wave 1 About 24 TD's
Wave 2 About 24 TD's
Wave 3 About 133 TD's
Wave 4 About 26 TD's

We see that waves 1,2 and 4 are very similar in duration. As of the close today, wave 5 is only 11 TD's.

We would expect wave 5 to be at LEAST half of wave 1, preferably closer to the 24 TD's of wave 1.
12 TD's would be tomorrow and half wave 1
15 TD's would be Wednesday, February 26th, where the top of the trend channel comes into play with the FRZ and .618 TD's of wave 1.
24 TD's would put the top into March, and would probably be more toward the 1.618*1 FRZ, but that would be above the trend channel and unlikely.

2 comments:

  1. You're missed @ Danno's man.

    EXAS had an EXCELLENT conference call yesterday.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Maybe I'll return when the time is right. EXAS is doing great in my portfolio!

    ReplyDelete