Tuesday, October 8, 2013
Yesterday I got long USD/JPY @96.76 which is currently green by about 30 pips, nothing to brag about yet. Looking to the daily chart we have what seems to be a triangle and that's the way I'm playing it for now. This has bullish implications for the SP-500 since these two markets have been highly correlated in the past. USD/JPY is well within it's upward channel still and has entered the buy zone shown by the two horizontal white lines 3 times now.
There are two counts I'm following. The first says the move from the high is a major A wave followed by a triangle B wave. If that count is correct, we are terminating the D wave and should head up to the 100 level. The other is the more bullish picture I painted above where the whole correction is a 4th wave triangle and we should head up to the 105 area in the 5th wave. Under that count we are finishing the E wave of the triangle.
This wave lower consists of an ABC W wave which was a typical zigzag, followed by and expanded flat X wave, a wave up, b wave that went below the start of the a wave followed by a c wave which ended much higher than the a wave. The last wave of the formation, the Y wave, seems to have formed an ending diagonal triangle and broke out overnight.
All of this is happening within a Fib Support Zone of at least 6 Fibonacci levels that should support this pair at least in the short term.
Best of luck,
Posted by James Genosky at 5:09 AM