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CURRENT MARKET TREND: Up 5/27/16 @ 2090
Stop-loss 2026

Sunday, December 30, 2012

Another CIT - Trend now BEARISH

This past week we had a change in trend from the December 17th bullish CIT. All daily indicators are now bearish, and the Swing Trend Indicator has flashed a cautious sell.

The charts, starting with the ADX which hasn't given a signal since a BUY on June 6th. The only signal this chart shows is the cross of the -DI above the +DI, however that ADX is below 20 which means the market isn't trending strongly.

Stoch RSI 34 went bearish on Friday, December 21st with a trendline break.

Daily RSI went bearish on the 21st with a CIT signal

Daily MACD also broke it's trendline and the Histo has gone negative

We must be cognizant of longer term charts (weekly) which are still bullish. The weekly RSI on the SP-500 sits on trendline support

And the weekly MACD is still fully in the bullish zone

Forgot to mention the Swing Trend Indicator (Daily) - Price has dropped below the 3dsma, but not below the 10dsma which would issue the full sell signal.

I had a short position going into this week. I covered those positions this week and went long. I didn't like the price action off the low so cut that trade and went into the weekend flat. I will be looking to get short next week to play the change in trend. I may get whipsawed a bit getting into this position, but will accept the drawdown and set my stops appropriately.



Monday, December 17, 2012

CIT - Change In Trend

The latest dip in the SP-500 has given us our CIT line on the daily RSI. Do not expect a change in trend until this line is broken.

Wednesday, December 12, 2012

***New Trade Alert***

Sell AUD/USD at the market. SL for entire order is 1.06200, take profit 1.000 (subject to revision based on short term counts)

Setup chart:

Tuesday, December 11, 2012

State of the Markets

I am still bullish the US equity markets until early 2013 (perhaps as soon as January). I've purposely left Elliott Wave labeling off the following charts so I don't turn people away who may not trust them. The first chart is the daily SP-500 with two simple moving averages, the 19 and 39. This is basically like putting a macd in the middle of your chart.

Notice there has yet to be a bullish cross, but I suspect prices will come down to the 1392 level to sync these MA's back up before we can proceed with another rise in the SP-500.

My favorite indicator, the ADX. Maybe because I've made so much money just using this for long and short entries. We have NOT received an ADX signal since the buy at 1260. It was getting close to a sell signal when we were up testing 1470, but no. Recently we had a bullish DI cross, but as seen from the chart that tends to whipsaw. Technically, we are still on ADX buy since 1260, so that's bullish.

Stoch RSI became bullish on Monday, November 19th. It will not turn bearish until we drop below the red line on the chart.

My Swing Trend Indicator is still bullish as of today.

With all of this daily information I have to remain bullish at this time. I am looking for a dip to the 1392 area in the SP-500 in the coming week or two, but I think that will be another buying opportunity for now. I try not to look very far into the future because the future is always changing. We need to adapt on a daily basis, thus I look at daily charts. For now they remain bullish.