About this blog:

The purpose of this blog is to give my real trade recommendations for forex and equity markets. This blog will always be FREE and will not display ads. I will never ask for anything from you, EVER. I hope this gives you insight into my trading mind and benefits your trading. Why charge if I can trade well?

This is a basic blog that has my real swing trades. I do daytrade, but that would be too complicated and time consuming for a blog. It has my real trades from my "buy-and-hold (short term) accounts. The timeframe is basically a few days to a few months.


CURRENT MARKET TREND: UP 2/6/14 1776
DOWN 3/13/14 1846 Stop-Loss 1903: Adjust Down to 1874.15 - STOPPED OUT

Let's try this again. Sell 1873 3/31/14 Stop-Loss 1905 - Booked 1/2 Profits 4/10/14 @ 1834.





Tuesday, April 15, 2014

Update

No daily indicators have rolled from sell to buy yet, but I am seeing some signs in other indicators telling me a bull move is on the way. One such case is BB on the VIX. The chart explains the setup.

Note: The first blue line actually was NOT a buy signal because there wasn't a close below the candle that closed inside of the BB.

Sunday, April 13, 2014

Weekly Cycle - Bull vs. Bear


The weekly MACD has broken below the uptrend line from the March 2009 low. It really doesn't matter much to me, but it does show me I should be cautious. If you believe the move from 2009 is a large correction, the market has probably topped in an ABCXABC double zigzag pattern, which is marked as "or" then the wave label on the above chart. The cycle extended a bit just like in 2007.

If you are a bull, which is the wave count I'm following, you should be looking for a wave (iv) low to get long once again. that count is displayed on both the MACD and the chart.

To find where wave (iv) should bottom we need to use the fib ratios of the previous waves and look for a reversal zone. We also need to look at the time it took other waves to form.

The most obvious price for the SP-500 to find support is the 1750 area. When I look at charts of the Nasdaq and the Russell, both show a need to find support immediately, so who knows if the SP-500 can get that low.

Indicators on the Nasdaq and Russell have begun to enter areas where I start looking for reversals, the SP-500 and DJIA aren't even close. Therefore I will rely on the Nasdaq and Russell to find the turn and let you know when I see it.

Whipsaws & Short Term Trading

The whole point of this blog is to reduce the amount of time I spend analyzing the markets and increase the size of my gains by staying with the trend as long as possible. 

Having said that, the blog, meaning the blog owner, me, got long on February 6th at 1776. I then flipped to short on March 13th at 1846 booking 70 points of profit. 

From the swing to short at 1846 I lost 28.15 points because I adjusted my stop-loss from 1903 to 1874, something I shouldn't have done. I rarely adjust my stop-loss and take profit from my initial trade, and this is why. I should've left the stop at 1903 and ADDED to the position at 1873 instead of having to create a brand new short position.

I did maintain my bearish stance while everyone else was getting all bullish once again. I re-shorted on March 31st at 1873 and currently have half of that position left after booking 1/2 profit at 1834 on April 10th.

First trade: 70 points
Second Trade: -28.15 points
Third Trade: Booked 1/2 profit for 40 points, so I'll adjust that gain to 20 pts. since it was only 1/2 position.

Total: 61.85 pts. so far with 1/2 position still short.

Thursday, April 10, 2014

Booked 1/2 Profits on Swing Shorts

At the EOD today I booked 1/2 profits on the shorts from 1873.

Wednesday, April 9, 2014

Q's - Give the Bulls the Benefit?

The bulls found support where wave c of 4 equals wave a of 4, and the area of the prior 4th wave. I'm giving the bulls the benefit of new highs over 91.36 as long as the previous low is not breached. I'm considering setting a sell-stop just under the prior 4th wave low at 83.74.

Chart:


Monday, March 31, 2014

USD/JPY Bearish Gartley into FRZ

It looks as though USD/JPY finished it's move up this morning into my 103.20 level and put in a nice bearish gartley in the process.


The stop on a gartley is the X wave high.

Friday, March 28, 2014

AUD/JPY

Assuming this pair clears 95.70, I'll be looking to sell in the timeframe and price levels cited in the chart.


USD/JPY - Looking to sell 103.20 either today or Sunday night

I believe USD/JPY is putting in a corrective pattern to the upside. I've been playing small stakes on the bounces here and am looking to take profit on my final position around 103.20 and flip to short. Monday may be a big down day in the US Markets if this count is correct.


Thursday, March 27, 2014

SP-500 Daily ADX

The daily ADX is still dropping and has reached levels last seen in December 2012. When the ADX has dropped this low in the past it usually set up a huge, drawn out move, meaning both price increase/decrease and time ran for a long duration. I'll keep you posted once this begins to tick up.