About this blog:

CURRENT MARKET TREND: DOWN 9/4/14 Short @ 1994.85
Stop-Loss 2011.17, stop buy 2011.18

9/9/14 Adjust SL to 2007.71, buy stop 2007.72






Monday, October 20, 2014

Swing Trend Indicator

The Swing Trend Indicator gave a tentative buy signal and a trigger buy signal on Friday, October 17th.


Tuesday, October 14, 2014

Swing Trend Indicator

Has been on full sell since September 12th @ SPX 1990


Looking for indications of a bottom

I apologize for the lack of posts, been busy with the new house and child. Still figuring out my time management.

I am on the lookout for a medium term low, bounce, and then downside to resume.

Stop-losses on the SP-500 should be at 1899 with 1899 being a buy stop (meaning you should get long above 1899 with stop-losses set at the prior low).

The VIX barely closed back inside it's upper BB. A close below 22.79 tomorrow issues an equity buy signal:

The RUT has entered into it's 4th wave FSZ (Fib Support Zone). Wave 4 =.382* wave 3 and wave 4 = wave 2. The ADX is nicely above the 40 line saying a trend reversal is due. There are two ways to trade the ADX, on a straight up rollover which has produced as much as 50 points drawdown before a reversal in the past, or by waiting for the ADX to dip back under the 40 line. The latter has produced 20 point max drawdowns. I can't rule out new lows, but I think new lows are buying opportunities.

Stops on the RUT should be at 1098:

RSI on SPX/VIX is in an area that has produced lows before, although a touch of the 30 line gives better signals:


VIX/VXV over 1 should always have bears worried:

The NYHLR was under .10 at one point:


Tuesday, September 9, 2014

Intro to blog changed

The intro will now contain the market direction, my entry level and my stop-loss/stop buy/stop sell trades. The market direction will always be at the top of the page from now on. Market refers to SP-500. I will track the buy and sell signals and come up with profit/loss system based off this first short trade, which I think will probably get stopped out, but that's the purpose. I'm not thinking anymore, just following my system.

Wednesday, September 3, 2014

Sell Stops

Sell stop levels for top indices:

DJIA: 16,984.52
SP-500: 1994.85
Russell: 1164.11
Nasdaq: 4054.61
DJ Transports: 8368.33

If these levels are breached, I will be short with a stop at the highs to start.

Monday, September 1, 2014

EUR/USD - Still Stalking a Long Position

Well the last attempt in catching the falling knife known as EUR/USD cost me 9K, but I've been tracking this pair and am highlighting another support level coming up.

EUR/USD 4 Hr. Chart:


ELLIOTT WAVE: 

Wave 2 is related to wave 1. In this case, wave 2 retraced .618*wave 1, which is perfect.

Wave 3 is related to wave 1. In this case, wave 3 traveled 2.618*1, which is perfect.

Wave 4 should relate to both wave 3 and wave 2. In this case, wave 4 retraced .236*3 and 4=2.

The pair is still respecting it's down channel nicely, and the move from a triangle is generally the final move before a short term trend change. Wave 5 would equal 2.618* Wave 1 around the 1.30800 level. Wave 5 = Waves 1+3 around the 1.30600 level. This 20 pip range produces a strong fib support zone.

Since wave 3 was greater than 1.618* Wave 1, we expect wave 5 to be related to wave 1. Wave 5 under this scenario typically travels 1*1, 1.618*1 or 2.618*1. We are reaching the final level of the typical scenario. Additionally, having the fib support of wave 5 = waves 1+3 strengthens the case for a reversal in this area.

The moving averages on the chart help support the count. The MA's came together on waves 2 and 4, just what you'd expect corrections to cause.

EUR/USD 1 Hr. Chart:


On the 1 hr chart we can again see where the MA's come together, and since those are typical corrections, I will label them that way. I have limit buy orders in at 1.309000-1.306000, and buy-stops in at 1.31963.

Hopefully this trade works a little better!


Thursday, August 21, 2014

EUR/USD

Got long this morning with a 1.32400 stop-loss. First take profit level up in the 1.34200 area.

Current Price: 1.32700
Risk: 30 pips
Reward: 150 pips
R/R: 0.2

1 Lot Risk $300.00
1 Lot Reward $1500.00

Setup Chart:


Tuesday, August 19, 2014

QQQ

Q's should take a little break before hitting the target zone of 99.20-100