About this blog:

CURRENT MARKET TREND: DOWN 9/4/14 Short @ 1994.85
Stop-Loss 2011.17, stop buy 2011.18

9/9/14 Adjust SL to 2007.71, buy stop 2007.72






Friday, October 24, 2014

1899 Buy Stop

You all should be profitable and long from your 1899 buy stop. That stop should've been moved down, but I didn't post that so I'll assume that's where we're long from.

The other buy indicators followed AFTER the buy stop. That's why it's better to look at multiple indicators and price at the same time. Some give better entries.

So where are we now?

The Swing Trend Indicator, after giving a buy signal last Friday, is now on full buy. The decline we experienced put almost all indicators in medium term, oversold territory. The rally thus far, as powerful as it has been, has yet to move many of these indicators. This means the decline we experienced was probably all of the 4th wave and we're heading up to SP-500 2120 before another vicious decline.

I will try to post some charts and in-depth analysis this weekend.

Schedule: Dogs @ Groomers 8 am, grocery shop, put groceries away, play with Chase, pick up dogs, drop dogs off, pay window cleaning people, pick up boat, pick up Nick, meet Paul at Mississippi launch 45 minutes away, fish the river and catch 20 different species, take pictures, drink beer, listen to Gopher game, have fun, pack up, drop off boat, drop off Nick, cook dinner for wife, play with Chase, put together new changing table, tighten bolts on shitty island kitchen chairs, watch a movie with wife(?)

Yup, life is easy.

Monday, October 20, 2014

Swing Trend Indicator

The Swing Trend Indicator gave a tentative buy signal and a trigger buy signal on Friday, October 17th.


Tuesday, October 14, 2014

Swing Trend Indicator

Has been on full sell since September 12th @ SPX 1990


Looking for indications of a bottom

I apologize for the lack of posts, been busy with the new house and child. Still figuring out my time management.

I am on the lookout for a medium term low, bounce, and then downside to resume.

Stop-losses on the SP-500 should be at 1899 with 1899 being a buy stop (meaning you should get long above 1899 with stop-losses set at the prior low).

The VIX barely closed back inside it's upper BB. A close below 22.79 tomorrow issues an equity buy signal:

The RUT has entered into it's 4th wave FSZ (Fib Support Zone). Wave 4 =.382* wave 3 and wave 4 = wave 2. The ADX is nicely above the 40 line saying a trend reversal is due. There are two ways to trade the ADX, on a straight up rollover which has produced as much as 50 points drawdown before a reversal in the past, or by waiting for the ADX to dip back under the 40 line. The latter has produced 20 point max drawdowns. I can't rule out new lows, but I think new lows are buying opportunities.

Stops on the RUT should be at 1098:

RSI on SPX/VIX is in an area that has produced lows before, although a touch of the 30 line gives better signals:


VIX/VXV over 1 should always have bears worried:

The NYHLR was under .10 at one point:


Tuesday, September 9, 2014

Intro to blog changed

The intro will now contain the market direction, my entry level and my stop-loss/stop buy/stop sell trades. The market direction will always be at the top of the page from now on. Market refers to SP-500. I will track the buy and sell signals and come up with profit/loss system based off this first short trade, which I think will probably get stopped out, but that's the purpose. I'm not thinking anymore, just following my system.

Wednesday, September 3, 2014

Sell Stops

Sell stop levels for top indices:

DJIA: 16,984.52
SP-500: 1994.85
Russell: 1164.11
Nasdaq: 4054.61
DJ Transports: 8368.33

If these levels are breached, I will be short with a stop at the highs to start.

Monday, September 1, 2014

EUR/USD - Still Stalking a Long Position

Well the last attempt in catching the falling knife known as EUR/USD cost me 9K, but I've been tracking this pair and am highlighting another support level coming up.

EUR/USD 4 Hr. Chart:


ELLIOTT WAVE: 

Wave 2 is related to wave 1. In this case, wave 2 retraced .618*wave 1, which is perfect.

Wave 3 is related to wave 1. In this case, wave 3 traveled 2.618*1, which is perfect.

Wave 4 should relate to both wave 3 and wave 2. In this case, wave 4 retraced .236*3 and 4=2.

The pair is still respecting it's down channel nicely, and the move from a triangle is generally the final move before a short term trend change. Wave 5 would equal 2.618* Wave 1 around the 1.30800 level. Wave 5 = Waves 1+3 around the 1.30600 level. This 20 pip range produces a strong fib support zone.

Since wave 3 was greater than 1.618* Wave 1, we expect wave 5 to be related to wave 1. Wave 5 under this scenario typically travels 1*1, 1.618*1 or 2.618*1. We are reaching the final level of the typical scenario. Additionally, having the fib support of wave 5 = waves 1+3 strengthens the case for a reversal in this area.

The moving averages on the chart help support the count. The MA's came together on waves 2 and 4, just what you'd expect corrections to cause.

EUR/USD 1 Hr. Chart:


On the 1 hr chart we can again see where the MA's come together, and since those are typical corrections, I will label them that way. I have limit buy orders in at 1.309000-1.306000, and buy-stops in at 1.31963.

Hopefully this trade works a little better!


Thursday, August 21, 2014

EUR/USD

Got long this morning with a 1.32400 stop-loss. First take profit level up in the 1.34200 area.

Current Price: 1.32700
Risk: 30 pips
Reward: 150 pips
R/R: 0.2

1 Lot Risk $300.00
1 Lot Reward $1500.00

Setup Chart: