Bullish Complacency About to Turn Bearish

The equity put/call ratio is now below the level reached in January of this year. Once this turns up a correction is probably at hand.

The bullish percent index has put in indicator divergence on the new highs. The ADX is also at a level that when it rolls, should issue an equity sell signal.

We are close to the 20-40 pt. range that the SPX ADX signal issued a sell signal marking a top.

RSI negative div on SPX:VIX. RSI below 50 is generally not good for SP-500 (currently 52).

AUD/NZD Update

I was filled on my 1.0765 bid and am currently up 27 pips or so, or $220/contract. I am now upping my stop-loss on the trade to the actual low that was made at 1.07400 dropping the risk to 25 pips or $200/contract. I am maintaining the take profit level for now.

Nikkei - Clean Chart

The Nikkei has one of the cleanest looks. I am counting the current move up as the C wave of a 3-3-5 correction which should top out around the 15,400 mark with a chance to extend to 15,675. I am looking to enter some puts for January 2015 on the EWJ, strike 11, at these two levels on the Nikkei. The 50% time from the low on the chart to the high comes in the end of November, and the correction should take at least 50% I would think.

AUD/NZD Update

No fill yet on this pair, but it is hovering around my limit order. It is currently 30 pips lower than when I broadcast the trade alert, so my patience has paid off to the tune of $250/contract. Setting up trade parameters ahead of trades and being patient allows me to gain better entries with lower risk and higher reward while avoiding large drawdowns. That's a good lesson to learn.

AUD/NZD - Playing a Wave 4 Bounce

I'm going to be playing what I believe to be a wave 4 coming up in AUD/NZD from the 1.0765 fib support zone.

Trade Parameters:

Buy to open with 1.07650 limit order.
Stop-loss @ 1.07350
Take Profit @ 1.08600

Risk 30 pips / Reward 95 pips

Why the 1.08600 take profit level? Based off the entry point, which I believe will complete wave 3, a bounce to 1.08600 would make wave 4 = .382(3) and wave 4 = 2. It also also the area of the prior iv wave.

SP-500 & QQQ

Both are within their FRZ and I'm shorting with impunity!

Better Q's Chart:

Also short FB

Q's Bull Benefit Count Updated

Man, pullbacks are hard to come by! Here is the updated Q's count from this post

http://unbiasedswingtrades.blogspot.com/2014/04/qs-give-bulls-benefit.html

We're still within the 1892-1954 reversal zone in the SP-500

Gold and Short Term RUT Trade

I'm looking to get long gold for the E wave of the larger triangle. I will be playing something like GLD June and July 125 calls.

With RUT selling off again this morning I'm thinking about taking a small IWM long trade via options as well. Rut found support into the wave 4 support zone. The stop on this trade will be set at 116 W4 Wave Count Invalidation, where it will enter wave 1. I will play this with IWM June 113 Calls (should be around 1.00)