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CURRENT MARKET TREND: Up 5/27/16 @ 2090
Stop-loss 2026

Monday, September 1, 2014

EUR/USD - Still Stalking a Long Position

Well the last attempt in catching the falling knife known as EUR/USD cost me 9K, but I've been tracking this pair and am highlighting another support level coming up.

EUR/USD 4 Hr. Chart:


Wave 2 is related to wave 1. In this case, wave 2 retraced .618*wave 1, which is perfect.

Wave 3 is related to wave 1. In this case, wave 3 traveled 2.618*1, which is perfect.

Wave 4 should relate to both wave 3 and wave 2. In this case, wave 4 retraced .236*3 and 4=2.

The pair is still respecting it's down channel nicely, and the move from a triangle is generally the final move before a short term trend change. Wave 5 would equal 2.618* Wave 1 around the 1.30800 level. Wave 5 = Waves 1+3 around the 1.30600 level. This 20 pip range produces a strong fib support zone.

Since wave 3 was greater than 1.618* Wave 1, we expect wave 5 to be related to wave 1. Wave 5 under this scenario typically travels 1*1, 1.618*1 or 2.618*1. We are reaching the final level of the typical scenario. Additionally, having the fib support of wave 5 = waves 1+3 strengthens the case for a reversal in this area.

The moving averages on the chart help support the count. The MA's came together on waves 2 and 4, just what you'd expect corrections to cause.

EUR/USD 1 Hr. Chart:

On the 1 hr chart we can again see where the MA's come together, and since those are typical corrections, I will label them that way. I have limit buy orders in at 1.309000-1.306000, and buy-stops in at 1.31963.

Hopefully this trade works a little better!


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