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CURRENT MARKET TREND: Up 5/27/16 @ 2090
Stop-loss 2026

Tuesday, May 27, 2014

SP-500 Still Tracking Complex Correction

I have us in the 3rd wave of C of Y in a move higher that should be capped by 1921 on the upside. This 3rd wave we are currently in should find resistance into 1907/08. I will enter a first scale short at that area most likely, about 25% of capital.

The typical fib extensions of an irregular B wave run from 115-125 the A wave which would put this B in the area of 1910-1919 with the possibility it tags the 127.2 extension at 1921.

Thursday, May 15, 2014

Swing Trend Indicator

The Swing Trend Indicator went on tentative sell again today and actually CLOSED with the signal, unlike the last signal which was nullified by end of day. The bearish odds have increased.

I do not like the RUT gave an ADX buy signal a few days ago. Just thoughts. I'll probably wait for a full Swing Trend Indicator signal to add back the 1/2 short position and be 100% short again. Either way, this market has been boring since March. Volatility cycle is still showing a high into June.

Wednesday, May 14, 2014

SP-500 What I'm Watching

Seeing the other indices (Nasdaq and Russell) still below their highs and still weak has me focusing on this count in the SP-500. Nasdaq and Russell are similar although their structures are a bit different and their retraces much weaker.

Yields continue to fall and it's only a matter of time until risk off follows. USD/JPY should continue to decline, bonds should move higher and gold should also move higher.

Monday, May 12, 2014

PBR Update - Book 1/2 Profit

Prior Post: http://unbiasedswingtrades.blogspot.com/2014/03/pbr-high-risk-high-rewrd-trade.html

Bottom picked this one nicely. Time to take 1/2 profit for 50% in a few months. I'm adjusting the stop-loss on the other half of the trade to under 12, and I'll also be looking to add back the other 1/2 of the trade I just took off around 13.

RUT - ADX Buy Signal

The RUT issued an ADX buy signal today and has also held it's parallel uptrend channel line.

Friday, May 9, 2014

SP-500 Weekly

Picking tops isn't much fun. Even when you find a zone likely to cause a reversal, the market will stay in that zone for a few weeks to a few months just to mess with you. I have been out of long positions, except for a few scalps here and there, since March. At that point I put the giant, red down arrow on the website. Since then we've just chopped around.

On the weekly chart above, you can see the SP-500 has been respecting the 50% fib fan since 2012. Every time it has touched this line a pullback has occurred. We are also within the range of 3 fib extension confluences from 1892-1954. I expect that at some point within this area the market will finally give up and drop to at least the 61.8% fib fan. If this line provides support we should look for highs up in the 2200-2400 range to come. If it fails to support the drop, I will conclude that the long term trend has changed to down and remain short.

Pointers: I am taking no long positions on the SP-500, at all.

Thursday, May 8, 2014

EUR/USD Bushwhacked

If the ending diagonal wave c of Y of e is playing out I expect it to have a severe drop from the triangle in the coming weeks. Short EUR/USD against 1.40 the figure for a LONG TERM TRADE.